چکیده:
بررسی های علمی و تجربی انجام شده حاکی از این هستند که کشورهایی با سیستم مالی بهتر و پیشرفته تر رشد اقتصادی سریع تر و پایدارتری در بلند مدت دارند. به همین دلیل بررسی رابطه بین بیمه و رشد اقتصادی دارای اهمیت بسزایی است. لذا در این مقاله به دنبال بررسی رابطه علّی بین رشد اقتصادی و رشد بیمه های زندگی در کشورهای منطقه منا در سال های 1994-2017 میباشیم.با توجه به هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر یعنی «ارزیابی ارتباط علّی بین رشد اقتصادی و رشد بیمه زندگی و میزان اثرگذاری آنها»، ابتدا برای بررسی جهت علیت بین رشد فعالیتهای بیمه زندگی و رشد اقتصادی از مدل علیت دمترسکو و هرلین (DH) برای دادههای ترکیبی استفاده شده است که نتایج به دست آمده حاکی از تاثیر دوطرفه رشد اقتصادی و رشد صنعت بیمه می باشد. لذا جهت تعیین میزان اثرگذاری از الگوی معادلات همزمان استفاده گردیده است که نتایج نشان دهنده تاثیر مثبت و قابل توجه رشد اقتصادی بر روی صنعت بیمه عمر و همچنین تاثیر صنعت بیمه عمر بر روی رشد اقتصادی بود. با توجه به اینکه رشد اقتصادی کشورها منجر به درآمدهای سرانه بیشتر و در پی آن سبب افزایش تقاضا برای بیمههای زندگی میشود لذا نشان دادن جایگاه صنعت بیمه در تقویت رشد اقتصادی می تواند باعث حمایت بیشتر کشورهای منطقه از این صنعت شود. در این راستا پیشنهاد میگردد که با توسعه قوانین مربوط به بیمههای زندگی و حمایت از شرکتهای بیمه و همچنین فرهنگسازی در بین مردم جامعه، به رشد این رشته بیمه کمک گردد.
Achieving high economic growth is the concern of all economists and politicians in different countries. Therefore, various researches have been done on the factors affecting economic growth. Economic growth is the quantitative and continuous increase in per capita income of production in a country. Four factors (population, natural resources, investment and technology) play an important role in the process of economic growth, the most important of which is capital or financial resources. Scientific and empirical studies show that countries with better and more advanced financial systems have faster and more sustainable economic growth in the long run. Following the increase in the share of insurance in the financial sector of developing and developed countries, the importance of the relationship between economic growth and insurance is increasing. Insurance is not only an important channel of savings and financial institutions providing security for economic activities, but also plays a key role in securing investable funds, because insurance companies, in exchange for receiving insurance premiums, promise to pay future damages that are likely to occur. Therefore, there is a significant time lag between receiving premiums and paying possible damages, which makes it possible to invest the accumulated funds with insurance companies (technical reserves). On the other hand, considering that life insurance is one of the most important branches of the insurance industry, the main purpose of this study is to evaluate the causal relationship between economic growth and life insurance growth and their effectiveness because the results of the causal relationship between economic growth and insurance industry growth are very different. Therefore, it is necessary to more accurately assess the causal relationship between these two variables. For this reason, we examine the relationship between economic growth and the growth of life insurance in the countries of the Mena region in the period 1994-2017.n this study, in order to investigate the causal relationship between the growth of life insurance activities and economic growth, the Demetrescu and Herlein (DH) causality model has been used for panel data. With this methodology, the direction of causality can be determined, If the effect between the two variables is one-sided, a model such as panel data is used to evaluate the effect. If the effect between the two variables is two-way, the pattern of simultaneous equations in the panel data is used to examine the extent to which they affect each other. Due to the fact that there was a two-way relationship between economic growth and the growth of life insurance, the model of simultaneous equations has been used to examine the effectiveness.The data used in this study are related to 13 countries in Mena region. Due to incomplete or non-reporting data, some MENA countries have been excluded from the study area. For some of the countries surveyed, data were not reported for one or two years, and the average growth rate, regression, and forecast were used to generate balanced panel data for those years. Finally, balanced data for the period 2017-1994 have been used in this study.As expected, the economic growth variable had a positive and significant effect on life insurance; The greatest impact of economic growth on the growth of the life insurance industry (3.118% in the clustering model for the GMM method) was estimated. For the equation of growth of the life insurance industry, the maximum and minimum effect on economic growth was 0.008 (in the initial model for method IV) and 0.039%, respectively (in the initial model in GMM method and the heterogeneous resistance model in method IV) It is estimated.According to the researcher's expectations, which are also reflected in the results, the impact of economic growth and life insurance on each other is positive and significant. Obviously, given the type of economic structure of the countries studied, the results can’t be generalized to economically developed countries. With the expansion of life insurance sector in the insurance industry of countries and the possibility of using the resources of insurance companies in the life insurance sector in a country's economy, the impact of the insurance industry on the economy will undoubtedly be greater. For this reason, government support and public encouragement can further contribute to economic growth. On the other hand, as the economic growth increases, the insurance industry becomes stronger and the demand for life insurance increases, which in turn will have a positive effect on economic growth.The growth of life insurance, per capita income growth, government spending and population growth are among the factors that have a positive impact on economic growth and have been studied in this study. Life insurance has the ability to convert people's micro-savings into huge cash flows in the investment sector, which is one of the basic prerequisites for any country for economic growth. Factors affecting economic growth have a direct impact on the growth of life insurance. On the other hand, factors that affect the growth of life insurance will indirectly affect economic growth. For this reason, governments' attention to the insurance industry, especially life insurance, can be very effective in economic growth.In this regard, it is suggested that by developing laws related to life insurance, supporting insurance companies and also culturalize among the people of the community, to help the growth of this branch of the insurance industry. Undoubtedly, the growth of this sector will benefit the people, society and governments.
خلاصه ماشینی:
با توجه به هدف اصلي پژوهش حاضر يعني «ارزيابي ارتباط علي بين رشد اقتصادي و رشد بيمه زندگي و ميزان اثرگذاري آن ها»، ابتدا براي بررسي جهت عليت بين رشد فعاليت هاي بيمه زندگي و رشد اقتصادي از مدل عليت دمترسکو و هرلين (DH) براي داده هاي ترکيبي استفاده شده است که نتايج به دست آمده حاکي از تأثير دوطرفه رشد اقتصادي و رشد صنعت بيمه است ؛ بنابراين جهت تعيين ميزان اثرگذاري از الگوي معادلات همزمان استفاده گرديد که نتايج نشان دهنده تأثير مثبت و قابل توجه رشد اقتصادي بر روي صنعت بيمه عمر و هم چنين تأثير صنعت بيمه عمر بر رشد اقتصادي بود.
هوانگ و گرينفورد (٢٠٠٥ ,Greenford &Hwang ) در تحقيقي تحت عنوان «عوامل اصلي مؤثر بر مصرف بيمه زندگي در سرزمين چين ، هنگ کنگ و تايوان » طي سال هاي ١٩٨٦- ١٩٩٩ و با استفاده از مدل اثرات ثابت به اين نتايج دست يافتند که سطح توسعه اقتصادي کشورها بر ميزان مصرف محصولات بيمه اثرگذار است و به طور کلي هر چه کشورها از لحاظ اقتصادي پيشرفته تر باشند تقاضا براي بيمه هاي زندگي بيشتر خواهد بود.
هابرمن و ليم (٢٠١١ ,Haberman &Lim ) در پژوهشي که بر روي وضعيت تقاضاي بيمه زندگي در کشور مالزي براي سال هاي ١٩٦٨-٢٠٠١ و با استفاده از روش OLS انجام داده اند، نتايج به دست آمده حاکي از آن است که علي رغم انتظار نرخ پس انداز اثر معناداري بر روي تقاضاي بيمه عمر نداشته و تأثير تغيير در قيمت بيمه بر روي تقاضاي بيمه عمر منفي و معنادار بوده است .
The impact of insurance development on economic growth in selected countries (with emphasis on the role of environmental institutions).
How Does The Development Of The Life Insurance Market Affect Economic Growth?